|Note that main updated document link is at: http://tinyurl.com/or9bzf2|
|This document: http://tinyurl.com/ngjdd8m|
not sent to
Mrs Danica Weeks
17 Kirkham Hill Tce, Maylands WA 6051 (??)
Assuming this is your address (ex phone directory), let me first convey my sympathy for your loss. I realize how frustrating it must be for you not knowing what happened to your husband. My background has been many years as a military pilot and journalist covering aviation accidents. I was associated for many years with one of the family of a victim of the 1997 Swissair 111 accident. She formed an international association to "fight the good fight" in discovering the real cause of that accident and putting paid to any airline or regulatory cover-up. Her husband's body was never recovered and identified (only a ring on a hand). The cause of SR-111 was wiring, or more particularly a certain type of wiring (an aromatic polyimide wiring insulation colloquially known as Kapton) that was used in most airliners of that vintage. It was also utilized for reasons of weight-saving in many (if not most) military aircraft - including the P3 Orion which I operated for many years. That wiring insulation, once it aged, was very prone to microscopic cracking and that permitted arcing/flash-over (think of it as an explosive short that could take out whole wiring bundles and propagate explosively along that bundle's length). The Association's efforts with publicising these flaws and active consultation with the FAA, brought about a WhiteHouse directed investigation into airliner wiring and a total change of attitude by the FAA towards developing an intolerant attitude to slipshod wiring practices. She made it very difficult for the industry to sweep the wiring scandal under the rug and continue slipshod attitudes towards cheaply incorporating "off-the-shelf" Inflight Entertainment systems. The industry mainly preferred to keep her at arm's length but couldn't very well deny the problem existed, as the Mojave desert boneyards were full of laid-off AirForce, Naval, Army and USMC aircraft that were too expensive to re-wire and too risky to operate. The RAF were more forthcoming, publishing a detailed report of their Kapton wiring woes. The end result of this lady's association was a much greater industry awareness of the criticality of wiring insulation - and some dedicated regulatory steps to ensure that the incidence of smoke in the cockpit and wiring fires became an almost insignificant cause of airliner crashes. Much of this success was due to Canada's TSB having investigated SR-111 so thoroughly and not permitting any doubt as to the cause of SR-111. Some videos of arcing flash-over are available at www.Lectromec.com.
The reason I've underlined wiring is that it was also the cause of the destruction of an Egyptair 777-200 ( SU-GBP ) on the ramp at Cairo airport over three years ago. The FAA finally released its final rule AD (Airworthiness Directive for US registered aircraft only) after MH370 disappeared (in fact, in mid April 2014). That AD mandated "inspection and repair as necessary" preventive maintenance (per the Boeing Service Bulletin) on the pilots' oxygen system. This is a sort of cheap as chips approach to accident prevention that's akin to the old saw: "if it ain't broke don't fix it". This Cairo accident was caused by an internally wound helical wire (a collapsible oxygen hose stiffener meant to avoid hose-kinking and oxygen flow interruption). This wire was needlessly conductive and shorted out within the oxygen flow via chafing, causing an instantaneous oxygen flare fire. This type of fire can be differentiated from a fuel fed fire (such as SR-111's) by the fact that it is a sheet of flame lasting only as long as the oxy feed is intact (gauged as a 5 to 15 second event)-and it soon dissipates once the oxygen-rich cockpit environment is more or less instantly oxidized, leaving a residue of scorched plastic and an oxy blowtorch focussed on the cockpit sidewall. In the Cairo accident that oxy blowtorch led to a cockpit sidewall burn-through and a hull rupture. At cruise altitude, the same burn-through plus a rapid depressurization would occur but the fire would be quickly extinguished, leading to a much reduced level of damage compared to the flight-deck imagery you will see of the aftermath of the Cairo ramp fire. There was a similar fire on the ramp that burn out the cockpit of Orion A9-300 at RAAF Edinburgh South Australia in the early 1980's. That fire once again proved that lubricants and 100% oxygen don't mix. The SU-GBP Final Report is downloadable from the tinyurl link below. You will note that, in typical fashion, the accident investigators never take a conclusive stance but are legally inhibited to presenting the "possibilities" as being just that. The truth of their actual belief for the actual cause emerges only much later, when the regulator takes the necessary definitive action to address the identified deficiency. It's not known if the MH370 aircraft had any "fixes" implemented.
It goes without saying that any pilots in the flight station (i.e. not visiting the cabin) would inflight suffer a lung-searing and second degree flash burns and thus be wholly or mostly disabled.- i.e. at least to some considerable degree. Explanations of possible aftermath developments (turnbacks, turns etc) are in the tinyurl links below. That treatment includes the effect upon modern cockpit plastic push-buttons and keypads, their surround housings, upon thermally actuated cockpit-located circuit-breakers and consequential near simultaneous systems outages (including comms). Within the document is also a discussion of the plausibility of (and scenario for) MH370's onwards ghost-ship flight into the Indian Ocean - with all onboard having succumbed due to hypoxia and intense cold. In other words, without being morbid, once the pilots were disabled the cabin oxygen would've soon be used up and pax/rear-end crew would simply slip into unconsciousness before a painless death. That the 777 would've been capable of continued stable flight with many disabled systems is factual and testimonial to its built-in redundancy and "different" (i.e. "active") primary flight control system. That oxy flare-fire would've blown out once the oxygen-rich environment had dissipated and the hull ruptured (i.e.allowing a high speed oxygen-thin inrush airflow). The flight deck and its surfaces would have been heavily "sooted" ( together with melted plastic pushbuttons and tripped circuit-breakers)- but in much better shape than the Cairo ramp aircraft (as that fire had burnt for hours). There was no reason for any destabilized spiral into the South China Sea..... as would've been the case with most other airplane designs.
It's noteworthy that the detailed press article treatment at http://tinyurl.com/ohstbcp does NOT address the possibility of an airborne version of the SU-GBP fire and its totally different considerations for airborne fire duration and survivability - but addresses all others (whacky as they may be). The reasons for this are (as usual) the total aversion within the industry for any scenarios that may enhance the family member's chances for a fair litigation settlement. The airlines are united in this control of the media (more on this aspect, and how they actively go about it, in the linked documents).
In summary, I suggest that you read (and re-read) the documents downloadable from the links and try to comprehend the scenario that most probably brought about the MH370 disappearance. I've found it very difficult to get journalists and lawyers to comprehend (or even take onboard) this scenario. Most are hanging their hats upon the fact that MAS was foolishly carrying L-ion battery freight consignments aboard a passenger-carrying aircraft. However this accident bears none of the tell-tale hallmarks of a Lithium Ion battery fire (discussion further below on that).
Finally, I have no interest whatsoever in any award or reward, should my assessment prove helpful in directing your inquiries and/or achieving any litigation "wins". The lady I mentioned earlier redirected her efforts - once her aims on wiring concerns had been taken as far as she could - by dedicating her insurance pay-out and Boeing settlements to a very active charity (www.heavenlybrickks.com/index.htm). If any post MH-370 settlements or indiegogo monies finally need a home, her charitable efforts would be an appropriate outlet for communal good globally. She gives large sums very regularly to charities world-wide (see her website).
I've expunged my name and contact details from the downloadable documents so feel free to pass the link on to interested parties. I personally wish to avoid any further part in the inquiry - or being dogged by reporters etc. Interestingly enough, Angus and I used to be flight instructors in the same 2FTS Flight many, many years ago. If there's anyone with the dogged determination to finally "get there" in respect of locating MH370's final resting place, it'd be "the Goose" - always well known for his "bit between the teeth" approach to problem-solving ( and the diplomacy to go with it).
However I don't wish to frustrate you further by being totally incommunicado and leaving you pondering any of the more esoteric aspects of what you will read, so I am contactable on 0414 766158. Please keep that number to yourself. The only journo who's privy to all the info (as conveyed to you by me) is Ross Coulthart of channel 7. I've known him for many years and been one of his sources for a number of aviation TV stories he's done and won awards for. He's presently mulling a treatment on his program of MH370's fate - along the lines described above.
Best of luck with your quest. Answers are out there but it's never in the airline industry's interests to achieve a bottom line that can backfire. That's the nature of the beast. However in favour of a final resolution of the MH370 mystery is PM Abbott's apparent commitment to fulfil Australia's regional duty to follow through under the ICAO allocation of geographic responsibility for SAR. Let's hope we can do an equivalent job nationally to the cardinal job that Canada's TSB did with resolving SR-111.
main theory and precedent
2. http://tinyurl.com/ksugyh2 prior document
3. http://tinyurl.com/mwnfn3s (SU-GBP final report)
4. This document: http://tinyurl.com/ngjdd8m
http://tinyurl.com/q4dgor4 (Iridian/Roadshow - first link on Google page - primarily). This was my early 1998 invention/concept for real-time airliner inflight position and status reporting that has (to date) been picked up (over the years) by 7 manufacturers including Iridium (but at present being utilized mainly by VIP aircraft fleets only). Inmarsat are now getting on that bandwagon as will many other purveyors of similar inflight data systems - however until mandated by EASA and the FAA, it will not be seen across the board on long-haul airliners.
But then again, having said that, I'm sure that it will be an eventual but belated consequence of MH370..... mainly predicated upon the alternative of a very exhausting, frustrating and expensive search cost with many red herrings - not to mention the reputation of a worldwide fleet of costly airplanes. However, above all it will forever avoid, at minimal cost, the sort of quandary now posed by the unexplained fate of MH370.
----- Original Message -----
To:"Aimee Turner" <email@example.com>
Sent:Sun, 08 Jun 2014 23:38:05 +0800
Subject:RE: Interpretations of the Ramiifications of an Airborne Oxygen Flare Fire (in MH370)....../TWO